Showing posts with label Population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Population. Show all posts

Friday, August 1, 2014

10 Mil Population - Singapore Should Plan For - Mr Liu Thai Ker

Singapore should plan for a population of 10 Mil, says Mr Liu Thai Ker.  

Mr Liu was CEO of HDB from 1979 to 1989, and then CEO of URA from 1989 to 1992.  See this - http://eresources.nlb.gov.sg/infopedia/articles/SIP_584_2005-01-22.html


I think Mr Liu knows full well that our tiny island can take a population of 10Mil.  We just need to carve out more space, and perhaps devote less space to certain industries that require a lot of land.

Anyway, before you think that 10Mil is way too many people for Singapore, do consider the fact that for our little island to be relevant to the rest of the world, we need a sizable population.  This world is all about cities.
Many large cities (5Mil and above) are sprouting all over the place, especially in China and India.  The urbanization trend is not stoppable.

Anyway, planning for 10Mil doesn't mean that we will necessarily get to 10Mil.  However, I think with the recent squeeze and jams, it would be much better to build the infrastructure in advance, rather than try to catch up later on.

Why do we need to many people?  Well, I leave that discussion for another day.

Happy investing!

Saturday, July 12, 2014

More Than Half The World Now Lives In Cities

This is according to a report recently released by the United Nations.

Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century.

The report notes that in 1990, there were ten “mega-cities” with 10 million inhabitants or more, which were home to 153 million people or slightly less than seven per cent of the global urban population at that time.

In 2014, there are 28 mega-cities worldwide, home to 453 million people or about 12 percent of the world’s urban dwellers. Of today’s 28 mega-cities, sixteen are located in Asia, four in Latin America, three each in Africa and Europe, and two in Northern America.

Today
Tokyo remains the world’s largest city with 38 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai with 23 million, and Mexico City, Mumbai and São Paulo, each with around 21 million inhabitants. Osaka has just over 20 million, followed by Beijing with slightly less than 20 million. The New York-Newark area and Cairo complete the top ten most populous urban areas with around 18.5 million inhabitants each.
By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 mega-cities with 10 million inhabitants or more.

Tokyo will still be largest city in 2030
2030 Projections
Although Tokyo’s population is projected to decline, it will remain the world’s largest city in 2030 with 37 million inhabitants, followed closely by Delhi, whose population is projected to rise swiftly to 36 million in 2030. While Osaka and New York-Newark were the world’s second and third largest urban areas in 1990, by 2030 they are projected to fall in rank to the 13th and 14th positions, respectively, as mega-cities in developing countries become more prominent.

By 2050, the vast majority of the world’s megacities will be in Asia.

What about Singapore? 
Well, we should think about the future of Singapore.  When the Government put out that infamous White Paper of 6million population, the local people screamed and yelled.  But just look at the world around us. Mega-cities are growing rapidly and many more big cities are coming online.

Do we need to become a mega-city as well?  Is there some magic in the 10 million number that gives a mega-city its edge?   The current top global cities in the world like New York and London are also very large.

Since Singapore is such a great place to be in, maybe we should just ramp up infrastructure in a huge way and hope that more people will come here to work and play.

Do not forget that in this world of 7, 8 or 9 billion people as well as many large, huge and mega-cities, even staying relevant would become a challenge to our little red dot.

Happy Investing!

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

UK Could Become World's 4th Largest Economy (Population Booming)

The UK is growing at about the fastest rate of any G7 Economy.  This is in part driven by population growth.

Britain had Europe's fastest growing population in 2012
According to EU statistics, Britain had Europe’s fastest growing population in 2012 in terms of absolute numbers of people.  The latest Eurostat population figures show that there were 392,600 more people in Britain in 2012 compared to the previous year, putting the total population of the UK at 63,888,000.

More than a third of the increase, 38 per cent or 148,700 people, was accounted for by immigration with the rest accounted for by “natural change”, the fact that 243,900 more babies were born than people that died. The number of live births in Britain was 813,000 in 2012, the second highest in Europe, falling just behind France where 822,000 babies were born.

Office for National Statistics - UK Population Could Rise by as much as 10 Mil by 2037
The UK population could rise by as much as 10 million - nearly the size of London - by 2037 according to UK's Office for National Statistics, with the majority of the increase attributable to migration.

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a projected population increase of 9.6 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 63.7 million in mid 2012 to 73.3 million in mid-2037.

People and more people

UK Fertility Rate 
British women are having significantly more children than a decade ago.  The TFR has risen from about 1.56 to almost 2 in a decade.  The fertility rate in France is also similarly high.  Apparently, the growth of second generation migrants has helped - they clearly want to have more children.

German Population Shrinking 
By contrast, Germany's (the traditional European powerhouse) population is shrinking.  They are facing a huge fertility problem (sounds like Singapore!).  In its most recent census, Germany discovered it had lost 1.5 million inhabitants. By 2060, experts say, the country could shrink by an additional 19 percent, to about 66 million. (currently 82Mil)

London's Population Projection 
Within the UK, London's population growth is very impressive.  Some estimate that the population of London will reach 9 Mil in 2020. (London had just under 8 Mil in 2010).

What's The Big Deal? 
A lot.  Note that the migrants who uproot themselves from their home country to move to UK are usually in search of work, of greener pastures.  They tend to work hard, and will contribute positively to the economy. In gist, UK's workforce will increase at an astonishing pace for a developed country.

More housing needed

Impact on Housing Demand
They all need a place to stay. Many migrants want to go to London because the high paying jobs are in London.  Yet, we all know that London suffers from a huge housing deficit.

Taking the population pictures and GDP growth into consideration, one could say that UK residential property investments are a 'safe bet', generally speaking, because the underlying fundamentals of demand look to be strong, while supply seems to have a long, long way to catch up.

Do share your views on this topic at our community forum here. 

Happy Investing!

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References:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/06/britains-population-increase_n_4224673.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2118539/London-population-grow-9-million-2020.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/10808116/Roger-Bootle-Britain-could-become-the-worlds-fourth-largest-economy-within-decades.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10465123/UK-population-growing-faster-than-any-other-EU-country.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/world/europe/germany-fights-population-drop.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-birth-rate-leaps-by-18-in-a-decade-9107483.html