Wednesday, May 7, 2014

UK Could Become World's 4th Largest Economy (Population Booming)

The UK is growing at about the fastest rate of any G7 Economy.  This is in part driven by population growth.

Britain had Europe's fastest growing population in 2012
According to EU statistics, Britain had Europe’s fastest growing population in 2012 in terms of absolute numbers of people.  The latest Eurostat population figures show that there were 392,600 more people in Britain in 2012 compared to the previous year, putting the total population of the UK at 63,888,000.

More than a third of the increase, 38 per cent or 148,700 people, was accounted for by immigration with the rest accounted for by “natural change”, the fact that 243,900 more babies were born than people that died. The number of live births in Britain was 813,000 in 2012, the second highest in Europe, falling just behind France where 822,000 babies were born.

Office for National Statistics - UK Population Could Rise by as much as 10 Mil by 2037
The UK population could rise by as much as 10 million - nearly the size of London - by 2037 according to UK's Office for National Statistics, with the majority of the increase attributable to migration.

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a projected population increase of 9.6 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 63.7 million in mid 2012 to 73.3 million in mid-2037.

People and more people

UK Fertility Rate 
British women are having significantly more children than a decade ago.  The TFR has risen from about 1.56 to almost 2 in a decade.  The fertility rate in France is also similarly high.  Apparently, the growth of second generation migrants has helped - they clearly want to have more children.

German Population Shrinking 
By contrast, Germany's (the traditional European powerhouse) population is shrinking.  They are facing a huge fertility problem (sounds like Singapore!).  In its most recent census, Germany discovered it had lost 1.5 million inhabitants. By 2060, experts say, the country could shrink by an additional 19 percent, to about 66 million. (currently 82Mil)

London's Population Projection 
Within the UK, London's population growth is very impressive.  Some estimate that the population of London will reach 9 Mil in 2020. (London had just under 8 Mil in 2010).

What's The Big Deal? 
A lot.  Note that the migrants who uproot themselves from their home country to move to UK are usually in search of work, of greener pastures.  They tend to work hard, and will contribute positively to the economy. In gist, UK's workforce will increase at an astonishing pace for a developed country.

More housing needed

Impact on Housing Demand
They all need a place to stay. Many migrants want to go to London because the high paying jobs are in London.  Yet, we all know that London suffers from a huge housing deficit.

Taking the population pictures and GDP growth into consideration, one could say that UK residential property investments are a 'safe bet', generally speaking, because the underlying fundamentals of demand look to be strong, while supply seems to have a long, long way to catch up.

Do share your views on this topic at our community forum here. 

Happy Investing!

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References:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/11/06/britains-population-increase_n_4224673.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2118539/London-population-grow-9-million-2020.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/10808116/Roger-Bootle-Britain-could-become-the-worlds-fourth-largest-economy-within-decades.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10465123/UK-population-growing-faster-than-any-other-EU-country.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/14/world/europe/germany-fights-population-drop.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-birth-rate-leaps-by-18-in-a-decade-9107483.html

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