Saturday, October 4, 2014

Will there be another Tiananmen? - Hong Kong Protests

The prospect of Tiananmen looms large, in the minds of the Hong Kong protestors as well as the Chinese Communist Party.  The recognition that a Tiananmen situation could easily occur, is a good start.

However, it is not inconceivable that China would send the PLA into Hong Kong if the protestors cross the lines such that anarchy breaks out.  For instance,

1) Protestors start to occupy Government buildings and prevent HK Government from functioning.

2) Protestors go after key HK government officials, e.g. the Chief Executive

3) Protestors turn disorderly and start to destroy public property.

The challenge for the Hong Kong protestors is manifold.  There is no clear leadership, it has been rather spontaneous.  This is not necessarily a bad thing, however, without leaders, I am not sure who can negotiate with the Chinese Government on behalf of the protestors.

The young protest leader - what is his end goal?  If his goal is no less than free and unfettered elections for Hong Kong, I am not sure if the Chinese Communist Party would be able to stomach that.  If that outcome is unacceptable for the CCCP, then it looks like we are headed for some showdown.

In my own limited view, I do not think that China would use force unless they had absolutely no choice.


thanks for reading.

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